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   In the midst of increasing GOP criticism, Nate Silver posts his final forecast update: Oh, I'm afraid President Obama will be quite re-elected, when your talking points arrive

06 Nov 2012 08:41 AM   |   10813 clicks   |   The New York Times
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Grand_Moff_Joseph    [TotalFark]  
"All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you'll excuse the cliche, but it's appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney's chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast"

06 Nov 2012 01:51 AM
Frederick    [TotalFark]  

Grand_Moff_Joseph: "All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you'll excuse the cliche, but it's appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney's chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast"


Which makes it a good time to put the GOP "all-in" because you know those fish will call.

06 Nov 2012 02:58 AM
Tellingthem    [TotalFark]  
Haven't clicked it yet but my prediction for tomorrow is Obama by 6% with a 55% voter turnout. let's see how close i am...

06 Nov 2012 04:23 AM
Tellingthem    [TotalFark]  

Tellingthem: Haven't clicked it yet but my prediction for tomorrow is Obama by 6% with a 55% voter turnout. let's see how close i am...


The FiveThirtyEight forecast of the national popular vote is within this range, projecting Mr. Obama's most likely margin of victory to be two or three percentage points,

Damn that is closer than I thought...

06 Nov 2012 04:25 AM
Tellingthem    [TotalFark]  

Tellingthem: Tellingthem: Haven't clicked it yet but my prediction for tomorrow is Obama by 6% with a 55% voter turnout. let's see how close i am...

The FiveThirtyEight forecast of the national popular vote is within this range, projecting Mr. Obama's most likely margin of victory to be two or three percentage points,

Damn that is closer than I thought...


the race not my prediction...I'm going to bed now...

06 Nov 2012 04:26 AM
Bontesla     

Tellingthem: Tellingthem: Haven't clicked it yet but my prediction for tomorrow is Obama by 6% with a 55% voter turnout. let's see how close i am...

The FiveThirtyEight forecast of the national popular vote is within this range, projecting Mr. Obama's most likely margin of victory to be two or three percentage points,

Damn that is closer than I thought...


And it really highlights WHY we can't have nice things.

I foresee the winner being hotly conested.

06 Nov 2012 06:14 AM
sammyk     
Interesting that FL changed over to a slight lead for Obama on the last day. I think it was around %55 Romney just yesterday now it's %52.5 Obama. This is the only comment he makes "Florida remains too close to call. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the race there within two-tenths of a percentage point, which would be close enough to trigger an automatic recount." Kind of strange that there is a 7 point swing in one day and that's all that's said. If Obama takes Florida this one will be over early.

06 Nov 2012 07:38 AM
xanadian    [TotalFark]  
"I have a bad feeling about this..."

"That's no moon...that's Obama's campaign bus!"

06 Nov 2012 08:17 AM
Mr. Coffee Nerves    [TotalFark]  
Well, I just went to TrueFreedomF-150JesusPoll.org and they're using actual science to prove that Romney is going to win with 1,076 Electoral Votes AND that he'll win the popular vote six billion to zero, as people around the world hold spontaneous elections demanding a Romney presidency and giving the Republicans a majority of 15,265-0 in the House.

Of course, they'll still blame Democrat obstructionism on that abortion ban they keep promising, but...

06 Nov 2012 08:27 AM
theorellior    [TotalFark]  
I'm not gonna unclench until the magic number 270 show up and corks start flying at the Obama campaign HQ.

06 Nov 2012 08:44 AM
Headso     
I hope the guy is right, supreme court justice appointees alone are a reason to fear a bishop president.

06 Nov 2012 08:45 AM
JosephFinn     

Grand_Moff_Joseph: "All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you'll excuse the cliche, but it's appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney's chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast"


And boom goes the dynamite.

06 Nov 2012 08:47 AM
MemeSlave     

Headso: I hope the guy is right, supreme court justice appointees alone are a reason to fear a bishop president.


As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?

06 Nov 2012 08:47 AM
bwilson27     

MemeSlave: Headso: I hope the guy is right, supreme court justice appointees alone are a reason to fear a bishop president.

As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?


Yes.

06 Nov 2012 08:48 AM
hugram     

Mr. Coffee Nerves: Well, I just went to TrueFreedomF-150JesusPoll.org and they're using actual science to prove that Romney is going to win with 1,076 Electoral Votes AND that he'll win the popular vote six billion to zero, as people around the world hold spontaneous elections demanding a Romney presidency and giving the Republicans a majority of 15,265-0 in the House.

Of course, they'll still blame Democrat obstructionism on that abortion ban they keep promising, but...


I went to "truefreedomf-150jesuspoll.org" so that I can keep my hopes up for a Romney victory but I got this instead... "Firefox can't find the server at truefreedomf-150jesuspoll.org."

YOU LIE. Why would you keep my hopes up with a fake link? 

I'm predicting Romney wins every state except for that Chinese communist state of Hawaii.

06 Nov 2012 08:48 AM
Earpj     

theorellior: I'm not gonna unclench until the magic number 270 show up and corks start flying at the Obama campaign HQ.


I'll be clenching right along with you.

06 Nov 2012 08:49 AM
VendorXeno     
I elected to ignore the pollsters and look at the bookies, people who are the most inclined to be objective. Currently Obama is pretty heavily favored.

06 Nov 2012 08:49 AM
Even With A Chainsaw     

MemeSlave: Headso: I hope the guy is right, supreme court justice appointees alone are a reason to fear a bishop president.

As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?


Or a queen, king, knight, rook, pawn?

06 Nov 2012 08:50 AM
GrizzlyPouch     

sammyk: Interesting that FL changed over to a slight lead for Obama on the last day. I think it was around %55 Romney just yesterday now it's %52.5 Obama. This is the only comment he makes "Florida remains too close to call. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the race there within two-tenths of a percentage point, which would be close enough to trigger an automatic recount." Kind of strange that there is a 7 point swing in one day and that's all that's said. If Obama takes Florida this one will be over early.


Doubt it will be called til very late. Polls don't close in the panhandle until 8 eastern, will be prolly midnight before close to calling it.

06 Nov 2012 08:51 AM
Headso     

MemeSlave: Headso: I hope the guy is right, supreme court justice appointees alone are a reason to fear a bishop president.

As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?


any high level religious figure, he's not just a mormon he's a mormon bishop, so yeah a catholic bishop running for president would be just as bad as would their muslim and jewish counterparts.

06 Nov 2012 08:51 AM
theorellior    [TotalFark]  

MemeSlave: As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?


Call me when a Catholic bishop, a rabbi or an imam are running for president.

06 Nov 2012 08:51 AM
Sock Ruh Tease     

Even With A Chainsaw: MemeSlave: Headso: I hope the guy is right, supreme court justice appointees alone are a reason to fear a bishop president.

As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?

Or a queen, king, knight, rook, pawn?


i.imgur.comView Full Size

06 Nov 2012 08:51 AM
jcb274     

sammyk: Interesting that FL changed over to a slight lead for Obama on the last day. I think it was around %55 Romney just yesterday now it's %52.5 Obama. This is the only comment he makes "Florida remains too close to call. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the race there within two-tenths of a percentage point, which would be close enough to trigger an automatic recount." Kind of strange that there is a 7 point swing in one day and that's all that's said. If Obama takes Florida this one will be over early.


It was a coin-flip yesterday and a coin-flip today. I'm not sure there's much more to say about that.

06 Nov 2012 08:51 AM
Thunderpipes     
I think Obama will win.

Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.

06 Nov 2012 08:52 AM
Dwight_Yeast     

VendorXeno: I elected to ignore the pollsters and look at the bookies, people who are the most inclined to be objective. Currently Obama is pretty heavily favored.


Nate Silver isn't a pollster. He's an aggregator of information who takes polling data and turns it into something useful.

06 Nov 2012 08:54 AM
Jim_Callahan     

Bontesla: I foresee the winner being hotly conested.


Sort of depends on what you mean by "hotly contested". In any election more important than American Idol, a consistent 1% lead long-term is actually considered pretty reliable, and 2-3% is considered damned near unassailable.

Albeit that's talking about actual elections and _average_ poll numbers over extended periods at the state level, national-level numbers are more volatile but less important and individual polls can run all over the place. But, for instance, Texas is considered a deep-red state that's so Republican you shouldn't even bother campaigning here because of a gap on the order of like five percent in voter registration/polling/presidential voting, and no one bothers with CA because of a similar swing the other way.

//As always, note that polling analysis isn't what I do for a living or anything, so take this with the usual internet grain of salt.

06 Nov 2012 08:56 AM
JW     

Dwight_Yeast: VendorXeno: I elected to ignore the pollsters and look at the bookies, people who are the most inclined to be objective. Currently Obama is pretty heavily favored.

Nate Silver isn't a pollster. He's an aggregator of information who takes polling data and turns it into something useful.


In fact, he's much closer to a bookie or oddsmaker than a pollster.

06 Nov 2012 08:56 AM
The Why Not Guy     

sammyk: Kind of strange that there is a 7 point swing in one day and that's all that's said. If Obama takes Florida this one will be over early.


Nate's 55% or 52.5% refer to the candidates chances of winning the state based on computer simulations, not the poll numbers. A small gain in the polls can lead to a larger gain in chance of winning when other variables are factored in. The swings are higher so close to the election because the time has run out for a last minute game changer. Therefore even a small lead means a high percentage of victory.

Obama didn't gain 7% in Florida's polls. His odds of winning Florida went up by 7%.

06 Nov 2012 08:57 AM
eiger     

Thunderpipes: I think Obama will win.

Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.


Odd. B/c if you look at the actual numbers since World War II, it's the republicans who have been fiscally profligate with their tax cuts. Democratic presidents generally try to pay for their programs. But you go on believing the stories you've been told rather than the actual facts.

06 Nov 2012 08:57 AM
Last Man on Earth     
Guys, come on, I'm getting excited too, but this isn't anywhere close to a done deal yet.

Very definitely related.

06 Nov 2012 08:58 AM
ultraholland     
sammyk: Interesting that FL changed over to a slight lead for Obama on the last day.

I imagine it might be greater had Scott not nearly halved the number of early voting days.

06 Nov 2012 08:58 AM
God Is My Co-Pirate     

Earpj: theorellior: I'm not gonna unclench until the magic number 270 show up and corks start flying at the Obama campaign HQ.

I'll be clenching right along with you.


I am Toby right now:

TOBY
Put it down! Put it down! Put it down!

BONNIE
Toby...

TOBY
No champagne.

BONNIE
We're just getting ready to...

TOBY
Put it down. Everyone in this room let me have your attention, please. The law of our
land mandates that Presidential appointees be confirmed by a majority of the Senate.
A majority being half plus one for a total of what, Ginger?

GINGER
51.

TOBY
51 yea votes is what we see on the screen before a drop of wine is swallowed! Because
there's a little thing called what, Bonnie?

BONNIE
Tempting fate?

TOBY
"Tempting fate" is what it's called. [starts collecting champagne glasses from everyone]
In the three months this man has been on my radar screen, I have aged 48 years. This is
my day of jubilee and I will not have it screwed up by what, Bonnie?

BONNIE
By tempting fate.

TOBY
By tempting fate!

06 Nov 2012 08:58 AM
GrizzlyPouch     

Headso: MemeSlave: Headso: I hope the guy is right, supreme court justice appointees alone are a reason to fear a bishop president.

As opposed to a Catholic one? Or a Muslim? Or a Jew?

any high level religious figure, he's not just a mormon he's a mormon bishop, so yeah a catholic bishop running for president would be just as bad as would their muslim and jewish counterparts.


Just curious, why does it make you feel so superior to be anti religion?

Even people who are considered geniuses have had faith.

Not flaming you, just curious about why you feel this way

06 Nov 2012 08:59 AM
Last Man on Earth     

God Is My Co-Pirate: Earpj: theorellior: I'm not gonna unclench until the magic number 270 show up and corks start flying at the Obama campaign HQ.

I'll be clenching right along with you.

I am Toby right now:

TOBY
Put it down! Put it down! Put it down!

BONNIE
Toby...

TOBY
No champagne.

BONNIE
We're just getting ready to...

TOBY
Put it down. Everyone in this room let me have your attention, please. The law of our
land mandates that Presidential appointees be confirmed by a majority of the Senate.
A majority being half plus one for a total of what, Ginger?

GINGER
51.

TOBY
51 yea votes is what we see on the screen before a drop of wine is swallowed! Because
there's a little thing called what, Bonnie?

BONNIE
Tempting fate?

TOBY
"Tempting fate" is what it's called. [starts collecting champagne glasses from everyone]
In the three months this man has been on my radar screen, I have aged 48 years. This is
my day of jubilee and I will not have it screwed up by what, Bonnie?

BONNIE
By tempting fate.

TOBY
By tempting fate!


Thank you! I wanted to post that exchange as well, but I couldn't find a video clip for it.

06 Nov 2012 08:59 AM
Bundalo     

Thunderpipes:

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.


I think most people would have gone with Rome as the comparative collapsing empire, rather than Greece, as Rome's collapse was due to far more internal strife and political conflict than Greece and its largely fiduciary failings created through not having a unified monetary policy with the EU, but getting to borrow money at EU rates. But, otherwise, 2/10.

06 Nov 2012 09:00 AM
bulldg4life     
The fact that a former vulture capitalist who has been running for President for 7 years, has changed his opinion on every major electoral issue within the past 10 years, has not outlined a definitive budget plan past mathematically impossible platitudes, declared disdain for half the country, and lied repeatedly to the point where his lies aren't even newsworthy anymore is going to get more than 2% of the vote is quite disturbing.

The fact that people are openly advocating FOR him to be President is just plain scary.

06 Nov 2012 09:01 AM
OhioUGrad     

Dwight_Yeast: VendorXeno: I elected to ignore the pollsters and look at the bookies, people who are the most inclined to be objective. Currently Obama is pretty heavily favored.

Nate Silver isn't a pollster. He's an aggregator of information who takes polling data and turns it into something useful.


I really enjoy seeing how much Silver gets Joe Scarboroughs panties in a bunch!

06 Nov 2012 09:02 AM
urger    [TotalFark]  
Exit polls here (takes a while to load)

06 Nov 2012 09:04 AM
Headso     

eiger: Thunderpipes: I think Obama will win.

Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.

Odd. B/c if you look at the actual numbers since World War II, it's the republicans who have been fiscally profligate with their tax cuts. Democratic presidents generally try to pay for their programs. But you go on believing the stories you've been told rather than the actual facts.


These guys had no problem running up 5 trillion dollars in debt all while receiving the extra tax revenue from the housing boom but during the crash when government spending could help prop up the economy and help cash strapped states who are getting less property tax revenue they have this huge problem with the debt. Republicans have zero credibility on the economy it's a sad state of affairs that people can buy into the line of shiat he is repeating there.

06 Nov 2012 09:04 AM
Antimatter     
No celebrating till it's over here. I'm really afraid of GOP election fraud at this point. I don't put it past them to try to steal the votes for a swing state or two.

06 Nov 2012 09:04 AM
The Why Not Guy     

Thunderpipes: Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it.


Why not? I'll take 2% growth over those last couple of Bush years any day of the week.

06 Nov 2012 09:04 AM
Thunderpipes     

eiger: Thunderpipes: I think Obama will win.

Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.

Just too many lazy, stupid young people around, and they breed much faster than working people. Democrats give money to people in exchange for votes, get elected, and the cycle repeats. We are Greece within a decade, but much more heavily armed.

Odd. B/c if you look at the actual numbers since World War II, it's the republicans who have been fiscally profligate with their tax cuts. Democratic presidents generally try to pay for their programs. But you go on believing the stories you've been told rather than the actual facts.


Facts are Obama just added 6 trillion to the debt in 4 years, and the outlook means at least another 4 if he gets elected. Facts are we have terribly growth, terrible unemployment, entitlement spending is exploding, and people are dropping out of the work force.

math does not lie. In no way can anything about the economy be called good. And Republicans had nothing to do with the housing crisis which caused the recession, no matter how much you want it to. We are done, period. At a certain point, you just cannot recover. Interest payments alone on the debt are now 350 billion a year I believer. 4 more years of Bambam it will be at 500 billion. Will just go up from there. Can tax the rich all you want, won't make a dent and will just slow growth.

Fact that Obama is even in the race shows how far we have fallen as a country. Think about it, you tools are orgasmic to vote for a President who is responsible for the worst financial outlook for the country in your life. Its like you want to be kicked in the junk. Half of college grads can't get a decent job, and you still orgasm over Obama? Just nuts.

06 Nov 2012 09:04 AM
bulldg4life     

Antimatter: No celebrating till it's over here. I'm really afraid of GOP election fraud at this point. I don't put it past them to try to steal the votes for a swing state or two.


Just go ahead and accept that Ohio is going for Romney. Accept it now and it won't bother you alter. Then laugh and chuckle to yourself when you realize he still needs to win Virginia, Florida, and a half dozen other swing states.

06 Nov 2012 09:05 AM
Onkel Buck     
FAIL MORE YEARS! FAIL MORE YEARS!

06 Nov 2012 09:06 AM
Holocaust Agnostic     
Game metaphors? Why?

/Obama has a terminator save and Feel no Pain.

06 Nov 2012 09:07 AM
Mose     
AvP

/two thumbs, jaded, cynical?
//this guy right here

06 Nov 2012 09:07 AM
Fu Manchu     

Thunderpipes: Sucky thing is, 7% unemployment and trillion dollar deficits, 2% growth is the new America under Democrat rule, and you guys love it. I have a one year old, he will have to contend with 30-40 trillion dollars of US debt by the time he is in college.


LOL... you think your kid gets into college?

06 Nov 2012 09:08 AM
Maud Dib     

bulldg4life: The fact that a former vulture capitalist who has been running for President for 7 years, has changed his opinion on every major electoral issue within the past 10 years, has not outlined a definitive budget plan past mathematically impossible platitudes, declared disdain for half the country, and lied repeatedly to the point where his lies aren't even newsworthy anymore is going to get more than 2% of the vote is quite disturbing.

The fact that people are openly advocating FOR him to be President is just plain scary.


I think we know why.

3.bp.blogspot.comView Full Size

06 Nov 2012 09:08 AM
Cubs300     
I liken this election to last week Packers game (I live in Wisconsin, so bear with me). They were playing Arizona. Everybody picked Green Bay to win. Everybody knew Green Bay was going to win. They were a 5-to-1 favorite. Heck, probably some players for Arizona knew Green Bay was going to win. However, there was a monent in the third quarter where Arizona was on the 2-yard line looking to score a touchdown that would've brought them to within 3 points. It was close. Was Arizona actually going to pull this game out? The answer, of course, was no. Because Arizona is, well, Arizona and they're too one dimensional of a team...and that one dimension is very good. Meanwhile Green Bay is that much better, and they should've won that game going away. What I'm trying to say is Romney is like Arizona and Obama is like Green Bay. Obama should be blowing out Romney, but he's not. however, he's still leading the game late and will more than likely put it away by the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter.

That's enough sports analogies for the day.

06 Nov 2012 09:08 AM
TheOther     
i309.photobucket.comView Full Size

06 Nov 2012 09:08 AM
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