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   The end of winter, and other horrifying new global warming projections (cuz you didn't take the previous ones seriously). EVERYBODY PANIC

20 Nov 2012 12:46 PM   |   6061 clicks   |   Gawker
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xanadian    [TotalFark]  
FTFA: Winter in the future will be like your grandparents' summer.

Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. Are you telling me that my winter (about 20-30F, PLUS 7, which leads to 27-37F) will be WARMER than my grandparents' summer (60s and 70s)?

Global warming (rather, climate change) is real, but hyperbole doesn't help your cause very much. If anything, the increase in global temperatures will lead to more moisture evaporating into the air, leading to bigger hurricanes and bigger snowstorms. The hydrological cycle will get all wonky, but I don't think "winter" will become warmer than "summer."

20 Nov 2012 12:06 PM
elchip     
Ned Stark is gonna be soooooooo disappointed.

20 Nov 2012 12:48 PM
Dow Jones and the Temple of Doom     
I live in Florida. We never had a winter to begin with.

20 Nov 2012 12:49 PM
Tat'dGreaser     
It's almost as if this planet wasn't created just for humans.

20 Nov 2012 12:50 PM
Just another Heartland Weirdass     
I don't particularly care for winter.

20 Nov 2012 12:50 PM
ReAnimator     
As a Canadian i welcome this "no winter" thing.

20 Nov 2012 12:51 PM
Abe Vigoda's Ghost    [TotalFark]  

xanadian: FTFA: Winter in the future will be like your grandparents' summer.

Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. Are you telling me that my winter (about 20-30F, PLUS 7, which leads to 27-37F) will be WARMER than my grandparents' summer (60s and 70s)?

Global warming (rather, climate change) is real, but hyperbole doesn't help your cause very much. If anything, the increase in global temperatures will lead to more moisture evaporating into the air, leading to bigger hurricanes and bigger snowstorms. The hydrological cycle will get all wonky, but I don't think "winter" will become warmer than "summer."


Stop making sense. We have a crisis to wring our hands about.

imgc.allpostersimages.comView Full Size

20 Nov 2012 12:51 PM
elchip     

xanadian: FTFA: Winter in the future will be like your grandparents' summer.

Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. Are you telling me that my winter (about 20-30F, PLUS 7, which leads to 27-37F) will be WARMER than my grandparents' summer (60s and 70s)?

Global warming (rather, climate change) is real, but hyperbole doesn't help your cause very much. If anything, the increase in global temperatures will lead to more moisture evaporating into the air, leading to bigger hurricanes and bigger snowstorms. The hydrological cycle will get all wonky, but I don't think "winter" will become warmer than "summer."


In San Francisco, only 14 degrees separate the hottest month's average high from the coldest month's average high.

And that was just my first guess. I'm sure there are some places where this claim could be true.

Not many, though.

20 Nov 2012 12:52 PM
Vegan Meat Popsicle     

xanadian: Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. Are you telling me that my winter (about 20-30F, PLUS 7, which leads to 27-37F) will be WARMER than my grandparents' summer (60s and 70s)?


No, they said it would be like it. And if we're going to project current trends, that's a very real possibility in some places.

A GLOBAL average change of 4C can have much, much, MUCH more serious effects on a REGIONAL level. Just because the worldwide average is 4C doesn't mean some localized changes couldn't be on the order of 10C or more.

/ averages and shiat... how do they work?

20 Nov 2012 12:54 PM
DubtodaIll     
Does this mean we're going to have to adapt? Yeah humans are really bad at that...

20 Nov 2012 12:55 PM
letrole     
xanadian: Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. 

4C is 39F

20 Nov 2012 12:55 PM
Theaetetus    [TotalFark]  

xanadian: FTFA: Winter in the future will be like your grandparents' summer.

Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. Are you telling me that my winter (about 20-30F, PLUS 7, which leads to 27-37F) will be WARMER than my grandparents' summer (60s and 70s)?


It's due to this typo in the report:
Projections for a 4°C world show a dramatic increase in the intensity and frequency of high-temperature extremes. Recent extreme heat waves such as in Russia in 2010 are likely to become the new normal summer in a 4°C world. Tropical South America, central Africa, and all tropical islands in the Pacific are likely to regularly experience heat waves of unprecedented magnitude and duration. In this new high-temperature climate regime, the coolest months are likely to be substantially warmer than the warmest months at the end of the 20th century. In regions such as the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Middle East, and the Tibetan plateau, almost all summer months are likely to be warmer than the most extreme heat waves presently experienced. For example, the warmest July in the Mediterranean region could be 9°C warmer than today's warmest July.

That should be "the coolest summer months".

20 Nov 2012 12:55 PM
brandent     

elchip: xanadian: FTFA: Winter in the future will be like your grandparents' summer.

Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. Are you telling me that my winter (about 20-30F, PLUS 7, which leads to 27-37F) will be WARMER than my grandparents' summer (60s and 70s)?

Global warming (rather, climate change) is real, but hyperbole doesn't help your cause very much. If anything, the increase in global temperatures will lead to more moisture evaporating into the air, leading to bigger hurricanes and bigger snowstorms. The hydrological cycle will get all wonky, but I don't think "winter" will become warmer than "summer."

In San Francisco, only 14 degrees separate the hottest month's average high from the coldest month's average high.

And that was just my first guess. I'm sure there are some places where this claim could be true.

Not many, though.


South Florida. I'd bet 15 degrees winter to summer overall shift.

20 Nov 2012 12:57 PM
JackieRabbit     
Oh thank goodness. Here it is Tuesday already and we haven't yet had a global warming biatchfest this week. That was a close one.

20 Nov 2012 12:57 PM
unchellmatt     
I see trees of green, red roses too
I see them bloom for me and you
And I think to myself what a wonderful world.

web.mit.eduView Full Size

20 Nov 2012 12:58 PM
phaseolus     
Since he hasn't shown up yet, can we all agree to ignore (or point at & laugh at) the guy who argues from the cherry-picked chart that spansmaybe a decade??

20 Nov 2012 12:58 PM
Vegan Meat Popsicle     

letrole: 4C is 39F


[morbo.jpg]

Scale conversion does not work that way!

20 Nov 2012 01:00 PM
Lar Jorgen    [TotalFark]  

letrole: xanadian: Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. 

4C is 39F


Celsius is a religion.

20 Nov 2012 01:03 PM
exvaxman    [TotalFark]  
All I will retain from this article is the "f" word. As soon as I saw that, everything no matter how well written (and this article was not) meant nothing.

20 Nov 2012 01:05 PM
maxheck     
Vegan Meat Popsicle

letrole: 4C is 39F

[morbo.jpg]

Scale conversion does not work that way!


Ideally it'd be expressed in Kelvin, but then you'd get people like the guy on Fark who, I kid you not, posted a chart with absolute zero as a baseline to show how a 4 degree difference was no big deal.

20 Nov 2012 01:06 PM
AlgaeRancher     
Tat'dGreaser

It's almost as if this planet wasn't created just for humans


Shhhh!

Thats too much truth for most people to handle

20 Nov 2012 01:07 PM
maxheck     
Lar Jorgen:

letrole: xanadian: Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F.

4C is 39F

Celsius is a religion.


Letrole is a surname.

20 Nov 2012 01:08 PM
WarszawaScream    [TotalFark]  
I welcome it. To hell with winter. Who needs snow? Hibernation? Fff to hell with bears too.

20 Nov 2012 01:08 PM
Wrencher     
Those Sandy sized giant hurricanes are really gonna suck when they are cat. 5 on landfall.

20 Nov 2012 01:08 PM
JackieRabbit     

Lar Jorgen: letrole: xanadian: Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. 

4C is 39F

Celsius is a religion.


Atheist! Heretic! Everyone knows that Kelvin is the one and only path to true salvation!

20 Nov 2012 01:12 PM
Pochas     
We didn't really get a winter here last year in Pennsylvania, with the exception of an oddly early cold snap/blizzard around halloween. So far this year has been basically the same.

20 Nov 2012 01:13 PM
12349876     

letrole: xanadian: Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. 

4C is 39F


Temperature conversion is a leaned behaviour.

20 Nov 2012 01:13 PM
squeez cheez     
I'll panic, I promise. As soon as Algore stops flying in private planes and heating 20,000 sq ft houses. If the guru of GW isn't concerned enough to change his daily habits I don't see why I should.

20 Nov 2012 01:14 PM
indarwinsshadow     
thethirtiesgrind.comView Full Size

20 Nov 2012 01:14 PM
maxheck     
JackieRabbit:

Lar Jorgen: letrole: xanadian: Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F.

4C is 39F

Celsius is a religion.

Atheist! Heretic! Everyone knows that Kelvin is the one and only path to true salvation!


Hah! That is rank(ine) heresy itself!

20 Nov 2012 01:14 PM
Oakenshield     
It only took a handful of freak killer storms devastating our economic and cultural capitals for Americans to get real about the perils of global warming.

Yes. Look at how much attention it got during the presidential race. Happily, we're set to become the world leader in oil production, so we won't have to worry about it.

20 Nov 2012 01:15 PM
maxheck     
squeez cheez:

I'll panic, I promise. As soon as Algore stops flying in private planes and heating 20,000 sq ft houses. If the guru of GW isn't concerned enough to change his daily habits I don't see why I should.

DRINK!

20 Nov 2012 01:15 PM
jigger     
We've seen these projections before. If we stop all human CO2 emissions by the year 2000, then we'll have the not-so-bad scenario of the red line.

kaltesonne.deView Full Size

20 Nov 2012 01:16 PM
jigger     

JackieRabbit: Lar Jorgen: letrole: xanadian: Hahaha no. 4C is about 7F. 

4C is 39F

Celsius is a religion.

Atheist! Heretic! Everyone knows that Kelvin is the one and only path to true salvation!


i48.tinypic.comView Full Size

20 Nov 2012 01:20 PM
FormlessOne     
Why panic? It's too late. Adapt or die.

20 Nov 2012 01:27 PM
brantgoose    [TotalFark]  
During the coldest depths of the last glaciation, the world was 5-6 degrees Celsius colder. The level of carbon dioxide was 180 parts per million compared to 280 ppm around 1800 and well over 380 pppm today.

It is possible that temperatures will not change as much as we add another 100 ppm as they did going the other way but I expect the 4 degrees (best estimate) predicted today will, like the other predictions, prove to be optimistic.

Remember, this is global averages including the oceans and everything. Land warms faster and more than oceans, which have a tremendous volume and thus take a long time to turn around. This is why climates are milder near water (although milder might mean hurricanes and lake effect snow like they get in Buffalo).

When I was a kid in Canada, I needed real snow boots and a parka and ski pants and I was still colder than the Hubs of Hell after being outside twenty minutes. You may not know this unless you live in Fargo or Maine, but the plastic that those Sears parkas are made of becomes stiff and brittle in the cold. It's like wearing a coat made out of chocolate. You worry that if somebody hits you, your coat will shatter. At slightly lower temperatures, it would.

I still have a couple of dorky parkas and some coats that would keep me warm at minus 25, but I haven't needed them for more than a day or two a year lately. When I arrived in Ottawa in the late 1980s I needed those coats and the boots that went with them. The Russian-style boots lined with an inch of felt that keeps you warm down to minus 40 Celsius, which is very near minus 40 Fahrenheit, another thing us Northerners know that Southerners may not.

In short, I have lived climate change. I was born more than 332 months ago. I have seen colder than average years. The year I was born, they had to tunnel to the outhouse under the snow banks. When I was a kid we played King of the Castle on snow piles which allowed us to reach the roof of the garage. We used to dig tunnels in them. Not any more. I've only seen snow like that a couple of times since I've been in Ottawa. It used to be almost every year until I was a college student.

In short, climate change is real and it is bigger than you think.

There are several reasons for this:

1. You don't notice the new normal because it has gradually crept up on you or because you have lived with it all your life.

2. You don't notice the global climate change because some of the effects--ultra-cold snaps, heavy snow-fall, etc., are paradoxical. All that hot air can push aside a lot of cold air, which descends on North America or Europe. Meanwhile the Arctic, Greenland and Siberia may be sweltering in temperatures that the Inuit have never seen before.

3. Most of the warming has happened at night. Heat flows down slope from hot to cold. Nights are cooler, so the heat flows into the night, equalizing temperatures between day and night slightly. You get a respite each day until the nights don't cool off any more. Twenty, thirty years ago I could open my window at night and cool my room. Not any more. The building holds the heat, my books hold the heat, the night holds the heat and nothing cools down--this can be deadly for those who do not have AC and those who are enfeebled such as the elderly, children and invalids--people who can't regulate their body temperature as well as healthy adults.

4. Most of the warming has happened elsewhere. Not only at night, but in already hot places or in the Arctic and Northern Canada. Canada and Australia have warmed at twice the rate as the temperate countries such as the US and the UK. Northern Canada and Southern Australia have warmed more than that, and the Arctic has warmed at four times the rate as it has warmed here. But I still might need my winter clothes and boots in the Arctic.

5. People think a warmer climate would be great. They think it would be like nice days are today. But climate changes as well as warms. A nice day in 2050 might be a day of drought or hurricane. Warmer, yes, but nastier in ways you can't imagine. Animals and plants don't adjust uniformly either, nor do soils and bodies of water. Warmer may mean more evaporation and thus drought and wilted, dead crops and forests, while in another place, that water comes back to the ground and it is colder and wetter.

Soils that absorb carbon will be giving it up again in a few centuries regardless, or sooner with climate change. This means catastrophe in places where catastrophe is normal, but also in places where catastrophe is rare.

6. And another important thing is that what is good for tourists and sunbathers is not necessarily good for the farmers. Will nobody think of the poor farmers? Much of the world's population still farms. Even in the US and Canada, where the percentage that live by farming or food-processing is under 6%, family farms will be devastated by changes that we don't even think of. Take plagues of insects, for example, or the hantavirus, spread by mice.

WINTER IS A GOOD THING.
It shelters the plants from the cold with snow. It kills the larvae of insects so they don't become plagues. It prevents invasive species such as the emerald ash borer and the gorilla from running amuck. Say good-bye to our old friend, Jack Frost. We might get some killer-cold years (for which we will be less prepared, especially the poor who can't afford to store a lot of old coats and boots from year to year) but we will get a lot more disasters of every kind known or unknown.

New disasters will strike. We just saw one possiblity: a combination hurricane-blizzard across the North East. Sometimes there is lightning during snow storms. This is rare and largely limited to places like Northern Canada's Boreal forest, but it happens, and it is something that could happen more often and probably will. An electrical snow storm might take out power and bury an area so deep in snow that it can't be restored to some places in weeks. How many will die or lose their homes or something else? We don't know. Shiat like that happens so seldom there is no collective memory of it. There are no plans or precautions known to even survivalists.

In short, no winter can be a very bad thing for people who do not even ski.


We had a month long foretaste of what 4.5 to 5 degrees Celsius would be like in the Summer in March incident recently. It didn't seem too bad, but it was only one month. It did not kill the Winter Festival, just skating and skiing and other winter sports. It didn't create a plague of mice with hantavirus or birds with bird flu or mosquitos with malaria or what have you, but in the future it might and in some places this will surely happen.

As for winters being like summer, it is not likely in the Central US and Canada which have Continental climates with hot summers and cold winters, but it is possible and has already happened in places like Southern England, where the summers are cold and wet and only a little brisker than the winters normally are.

I lived in Geneva, Switzerland and the coldest part of the Winter was Spring-like or Fall-like. They had a big snowfall and it became an instant book because they had to bring snowplows down from the mountains and call out the Swiss Army to shovel snow. Six inches or so of snow is nothing in Toronto or Montreal, but it's a big deal in Geneva or Rome.

And global warming can turn the Jet Stream around and lock it in place for a whole season. It already has done so more frequently than in the past.

Yes, snow can mean global warming. Yes, heatwaves can mean global warming. And no, it is Bullshiat to say that global warming has been dropped for climate change. They are both more or less synonimous and used interchangeably by most people. Yes, global warming focuses on one effect, while climate change is blander and vaguer and does not focus on any but rather all changes. But it is Bullshiat semantics and rhetoric to claim this proves or disproves anything and bullshiat to claim that this is weasel-talk. Shut up. You're weasel talk. More energy in the global climate system (heat) means more volatility, change and the crossing of trip lines hidden in the chaos of weather and to a lesser extent, climate.

We have known for decades about "chaos"--namely how sensitive some systems are to tiny changes, how feedback loops can crash, propelling a system from one state to a completely different state.

This is the enemy (apart from lies and stupidity and ignorance, our perennial enemies as a species). Things can change beyond recognition by tiny increments over a long time or a short time.

As the Dickens character points out: "Income twenty one shillings, expenditures twenty shillings, Heaven. Income twenty shillings, expenditures twenty one shillings, Hell." Many people haven't even learned to manage their credit card let alone the World. We are all living on debt, some of us more literally than others, but all of us are in the same fragile dinghy and some of us are dinguses.

You never notice how population doubling damages the world until that last doubling. The one that takes us from having nearly twice the resources we need to having not enough. Like a fired bullet, a bomb on a timer, a fall from a height, it's all in the last second of the game. Until then, things are just fine.

20 Nov 2012 01:39 PM
weltallica     
i.imgur.comView Full Size



But seriously, it's all a sham. The idea that we could have ANY effect on this planet is ludicrous...

i.imgur.comView Full Size

20 Nov 2012 01:47 PM
Vegan Meat Popsicle     

indarwinsshadow: [thethirtiesgrind.com image 500x395]


No. It already fell.

media.cmgdigital.comView Full Size


But you probably can't attribute that to global warming. Just like the two big storms last year about the same time. Or the killer heat waves. Or the massive midwest snowfalls. Or the enormous tornado outbreak. Or the record warm winter. Or the massive Hurricane in the gulf.

After all. You really need a trend to say something like that.

20 Nov 2012 01:50 PM
Badgers     
www.thatcutesite.comView Full Size


/Yawn

20 Nov 2012 01:51 PM
Spare Me    [TotalFark]  

jigger: We've seen these projections before. If we stop all human CO2 emissions by the year 2000, then we'll have the not-so-bad scenario of the red line.

[kaltesonne.de image 514x344]


Okay, everyone stop breathing.

20 Nov 2012 01:52 PM
halfmoth     
Celsius --> Fahrenheit... Double it and add 15 and you get real close.

20 Nov 2012 01:53 PM
HindiDiscoMonster    [TotalFark]  

indarwinsshadow: [thethirtiesgrind.com image 500x395]


don't bump your head.

20 Nov 2012 01:55 PM
Contrabulous Flabtraption    [TotalFark]  
Seems like we've had fewer hurricanes than usual

20 Nov 2012 01:58 PM
V650     
I'm a atheist when it comes to the church of climate change, global warming, cooling also. Al gore is not my Messiah.

20 Nov 2012 02:03 PM
maxheck     
Spare Me:

jigger: We've seen these projections before. If we stop all human CO2 emissions by the year 2000, then we'll have the not-so-bad scenario of the red line.

[kaltesonne.de image 514x344]

Okay, everyone stop breathing.


Aaaand... Here we have someone who can't tell the difference between a carbon-neutral process that can't put out more CO2 than it takes in versus digging up gigatons of carbon that took millions of years to build up and burning them in one century.

Thanks for letting us know up front that you don't have the basic understanding to contribute to the discussion in any meaningful way!

20 Nov 2012 02:07 PM
JackieRabbit     

halfmoth: Celsius --> Fahrenheit... Double it and add 15 and you get real close.


Old farmer's trick: count the number of times a cricket chirps in 15 seconds and add this to 55 and you'll have the approximate temperature. You'd be surprised at how accurate it is -- within a couple of degrees.

20 Nov 2012 02:08 PM
bring to a festering boil     

halfmoth: Celsius --> Fahrenheit... Double it and add 15 and you get real close.


Let's see:

100C = 212F Your calc 100C = 215F -> real close

0C = 32F Your calc 0C = 15F -> not so close

-40C = -40F Your calc -40C = -65F -> not so close

Conclusion: Not a good rule of thumb.

20 Nov 2012 02:11 PM
GORDON     
Al Gore said a few years ago that we were already at the point of no return, and he had a CONSENSUS. So who gives a shiat, now?

I hate winter anyway. Also, I am an intelligent, tool using animal with opposable thumbs and I will adapt and continue to create offspring and pass on my genes. Sorry about the rest of you.

20 Nov 2012 02:24 PM
Spare Me    [TotalFark]  

maxheck: Spare Me:

jigger: We've seen these projections before. If we stop all human CO2 emissions by the year 2000, then we'll have the not-so-bad scenario of the red line.

[kaltesonne.de image 514x344]

Okay, everyone stop breathing.

Aaaand... Here we have someone who can't tell the difference between a carbon-neutral process that can't put out more CO2 than it takes in versus digging up gigatons of carbon that took millions of years to build up and burning them in one century.

Thanks for letting us know up front that you don't have the basic understanding to contribute to the discussion in any meaningful way!


Sarcasm, how does it work.

/rhetorical

20 Nov 2012 02:28 PM
maxheck     
Spare Me:

maxheck: Spare Me:

jigger: We've seen these projections before. If we stop all human CO2 emissions by the year 2000, then we'll have the not-so-bad scenario of the red line.

[kaltesonne.de image 514x344]

Okay, everyone stop breathing.

Aaaand... Here we have someone who can't tell the difference between a carbon-neutral process that can't put out more CO2 than it takes in versus digging up gigatons of carbon that took millions of years to build up and burning them in one century.

Thanks for letting us know up front that you don't have the basic understanding to contribute to the discussion in any meaningful way!

Sarcasm, how does it work.

/rhetorical


Mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. I've just seen that exact argument too many times.

I blame Poe.

20 Nov 2012 02:30 PM
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