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  • I thought pretty much the entire western US is overdue?
  • DROUGHTQUAKE!
  • Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.
  • gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.


    Consult a dictionary.
  • fusillade762: DROUGHTQUAKE!

    How did you know? That's going to be the next big movie by the producers of Sharknado.
  • wademh: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

    Consult a dictionary.


    There is no factual basis for suggesting a quake is 'due' or expected at or by a given date, and therefore even less basis for suggesting one is 'overdue', other than ensuring that your report gets in the headlines. A huge quake could happen in an entirely different location around the pacific at any time. There might not be a quake of large magnitude in California in our lifetimes, or there could be one tomorrow.

    Saying that a quake is a risk people should take seriously and prepare for in the entire quake-prone region (which is vast), especially on known faults, does make sense. But we would not be discussing that article I guess.

    I live on an old volcano rim. I see a huge cone less than a thousand years old from my bedroom window. One of our cities was devastated by a very large, and unpredicted, quake just a few years ago. Calm sensible discussion of the science and preparedness helps. Hyperbolic nonsense does not.
  • Major earthquakes thus typically occur with no immediate warning whatsoever, ...

    Animals can sometimes sense an oncoming earthquake, so if your cat starts acting weird... no, that's not a good example.
  • When you are talking geological time, sure we may have gone longer than average between major earthquakes, but in human time, no where near.
  • gaspode: wademh: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

    Consult a dictionary.

    There is no factual basis for suggesting a quake is 'due' or expected at or by a given date, and therefore even less basis for suggesting one is 'overdue', other than ensuring that your report gets in the headlines. A huge quake could happen in an entirely different location around the pacific at any time. There might not be a quake of large magnitude in California in our lifetimes, or there could be one tomorrow.

    Saying that a quake is a risk people should take seriously and prepare for in the entire quake-prone region (which is vast), especially on known faults, does make sense. But we would not be discussing that article I guess.

    I live on an old volcano rim. I see a huge cone less than a thousand years old from my bedroom window. One of our cities was devastated by a very large, and unpredicted, quake just a few years ago. Calm sensible discussion of the science and preparedness helps. Hyperbolic nonsense does not.


    You are wrong. The factual basis to expect an earthquake is a combination of history and measurement. One can examine the historical record and find how long it usually is between earthquakes and determine probabilities. You can do the same thing with radioactive decay. When the probability of an event having occurred is much larger than it not having occurred, it is overdue. The definition of overdue is not having occurred by the expected time. It is possible that the probabilistic nature of that expectation discomforts you because you just don't usually realize that you're dealing with probabilities all the time. The ETA for a train arrival is just a probability. The fact that somebody wrote it down on a schedule doesn't change the fact that it is, in essence, a probability. The probability of an earthquake is a scientific thing, based both on history along a given fault, measurement of where movement has and hasn't occurred, calculation of stresses built up by lack of local movement, and a knowledge of the stress tolerances of the locked strata.
    You're welcome.
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  • wademh: gaspode: wademh: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

    Consult a dictionary.

    There is no factual basis for suggesting a quake is 'due' or expected at or by a given date, and therefore even less basis for suggesting one is 'overdue', other than ensuring that your report gets in the headlines. A huge quake could happen in an entirely different location around the pacific at any time. There might not be a quake of large magnitude in California in our lifetimes, or there could be one tomorrow.

    Saying that a quake is a risk people should take seriously and prepare for in the entire quake-prone region (which is vast), especially on known faults, does make sense. But we would not be discussing that article I guess.

    I live on an old volcano rim. I see a huge cone less than a thousand years old from my bedroom window. One of our cities was devastated by a very large, and unpredicted, quake just a few years ago. Calm sensible discussion of the science and preparedness helps. Hyperbolic nonsense does not.

    You are wrong. The factual basis to expect an earthquake is a combination of history and measurement. One can examine the historical record and find how long it usually is between earthquakes and determine probabilities. You can do the same thing with radioactive decay. When the probability of an event having occurred is much larger than it not having occurred, it is overdue. The definition of overdue is not having occurred by the expected time. It is possible that the probabilistic nature of that expectation discomforts you because you just don't usually realize that you're dealing with probabilities all the time. The ETA for a train arrival is just a probability. The fact that somebody wrote it down on a schedule doesn't change the fact that it is, in essence, a probability. The probability of an earthquake is a scientific thing, based both on history along a given fault, measurement of where movement has and hasn't occurred, calculation of stresses built up by lack of local movement, and a knowledge of the stress tolerances of the locked strata.
    You're welcome.


    I read this in the voice of Jeff Goldblum.
  • The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

    /knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level
  • fusillade762: DROUGHTQUAKE!


    "A Michael Bay film. In theaters everywhere July 2018."
  • August11:  I read this in the voice of Jeff Goldblum.

    blogs.pjstar.comView Full Size
  • gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.


    We ARE due, actually. Not California specifically, but 2018 is supposed to be a bad year for the world in general.

    "Upsurge in big earthquakes predicted for 2018 as Earth rotation slows

    Scientists say number of severe quakes is likely to rise strongly next year because of a periodic slowing of the Earth's rotation"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/201​7​/nov/18/2018-set-to-be-year-of-big-ear​thquakes
  • Honest question: When the earthquake happens, will Fark be full of jerks saying we shouldn't help them rebuild because hey, they should have known better than to live there? Because that's what happened after Katrina. Hell, even politicians like the illustrious Santorum and Hastert said it was our fault for living in an area prone to storms.
  • dickfreckle: Honest question: When the earthquake happens, will Fark be full of jerks saying we shouldn't help them rebuild because hey, they should have known better than to live there? Because that's what happened after Katrina. Hell, even politicians like the illustrious Santorum and Hastert said it was our fault for living in an area prone to storms.


    Is this a rhetorical question? Of course there will be, it'll be the same red state morons that crapped on NY after Sandy.
  • Resident Muslim: The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

    /knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level


    There are pretty good regulations in place and occasional inspections to help with some of the more obvious things. Hot water heaters need to be securely strapped to the wall so that they don't rock off and pull out a gas line. Lots of other types of furniture are also required to be strapped to walls, but of course what people do in their own homes can't really be controlled. (essentially, any tall free standing item ought to have an anchor strap, tall boy dressers, china cabinets, etc.) Lots of people have a old wrench near the gas shut off value that they put there years and years ago, and has probably rusted, and that they have perhaps forgot about. Shelving in labs needs to have a bar out front to reduce the chance of things sliding off and creating a untoward freshman chemistry experiment. People get public service messages about keeping a supply of emergency fresh water, gallon jugs or such that should be renewed about once a year (often stored in a garage with of course will be destroyed so you can't get to it). They try. Schools raise the issue with kids who come home and bug their parents who replace the wrench, stash some water, and then five years later the wrench is forgotten again and the water is tossed out as clutter.
    Hayward fault will be nasty when it goes.
  • dickfreckle: Honest question: When the earthquake happens, will Fark be full of jerks


    Why would that day be different from all the rest?
  • ComaToast: Major earthquakes thus typically occur with no immediate warning whatsoever, ...

    Animals can sometimes sense an oncoming earthquake, so if your cat starts acting weird... no, that's not a good example.


    My dog is useless at this.  I've experienced noticeable shaking from two earthquakes, the first of which was a moment magnitude 5.6 with an epicenter just over 10 miles away.  It felt like a heavy truck passing outside hit a massive bump, so the building jolted a bit, and then wobbled as if it was on a waterbed for about 20 seconds.  There was no damage.  I even had an orange on the desk next to me and it didn't move at all.  The dog was completely oblivious to this impending earthquake.  The initial jolt woke her up and then she decided she didn't like this weird waterbed world at all and hid beneath my chair until I made it stop.  Which I did.

    The second one was much weaker and farther away, with a magnitude of 4.4 about 25 miles away.  That one just felt like somebody was shaking the couch I was sitting on for about 10 seconds, as a joke.  Again the dog was oblivious.
  • Resident Muslim: The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

    /knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level


    Hey now, didn't they replace the old bay bridge that was going to fall over in a big earthquake with a new bay bridge which will also fall over in a big earthquake due to shoddy construction and corrosion of steel reinforcements in the supports?
  • indifference_engine: Resident Muslim: The Big One has been expected as far back as I can remember.

    /knowing how governments 'works', even California, I'm guessing not much has been prepared for something of this level

    Hey now, didn't they replace the old bay bridge that was going to fall over in a big earthquake with a new bay bridge which will also fall over in a big earthquake due to shoddy construction and corrosion of steel reinforcements in the supports?


    https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/articl​e​/Plague-of-problems-puts-Bay-Bridge-se​ismic-safety-6253577.php
  • itcamefromschenectady: gaspode: Overdue makes no sense in this context. It is not 'due', there is just a chance it will happen and noone knows very clearly what chance.

    We ARE due, actually. Not California specifically, but 2018 is supposed to be a bad year for the world in general.

    "Upsurge in big earthquakes predicted for 2018 as Earth rotation slows

    Scientists say number of severe quakes is likely to rise strongly next year because of a periodic slowing of the Earth's rotation"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017​/nov/18/2018-set-to-be-year-of-big-ear​thquakes


    Just you wait and see what happens when the earth flips on its axis!
  • wademh: Hot water heaters need to be securely strapped to the wall so that they don't rock off and pull out a gas line


    Which won't really help if your house isn't bolted to the foundation, because the whole building will just slide, breaking utility lines as it goes.  This link is about raised foundations with crawlspaces but the principle applies to slab foundations as well (without the bracing).  https://www.earthquakeauth​ority.com/ea​rthquake-risk-preparedness/strengthen-​your-home-seismic-retrofitting

    Getting an HOA to do this is like pulling teeth...
  • Taiwan was long overdue for a major quake, so I'm getting a kick out of this thread.
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